Iran is Still a Threat UPDATED John Bolton: Is the NIE Political?
It amazes me that the Liberals, who have been saying for years that our intelligence sources can't be trusted in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, have now seized the new Iran NIE as absolute gospel. It also seems strange that this NIE is in direct contrast of the last NIE from just two years ago. Were we that far off then or just now? Or is the CIA and NSA getting in on the political game again?
The Israelis are saying that we're clueless over Iran's intentions:
The document's eight pages, which include embarrassing instructions on how to differentiate between different yet related terms ("it is possible," "it may be so," "one must not remove from the equation," and "it's reasonable to assume"), enable the Ayatollas' nuclear and operations officials and the heads of the Revolutionary Guards to reach this soothing conclusion - from their point of view: The Americans have no understanding of what is really happening in Iran's nuclear program. They have no solid information, they have no high-level agents and they have nothing more than a mix of guesswork and chatter. The dissemblance and concealment have succeeded, and the real dispute is not between Washington and Tehran, but within the U.S. administration itself.
The truth is that nobody really knows what Iran is up to. This NIE is an opinion, not fact. And an opinion can change, based on the smallest piece of intelligence, over weeks, months and years.
However, even taking into account the new opinion that Iran has stopped it's pursuit of nuclear weapons, one thing remains clear: they are still a threat to the United States and our allies around the world.
For example:
- While the NIE believes they stopped in 2003 (the year we invaded Iraq, coincidentally!), it has no proof that the program remains stopped.
- Iran in still enriching uranium and developing long(er) range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying NBC payloads. Given this simple fact, it is clear that they could restart their pursuit of nuclear weapons at any time, and already have the ability to make and deliver those weapons.
- I think that we have to take them at their word when they clearly state their intentions: the annihilation of Israel and the West. Although Iran has made it clear, again and again, that they cannot be trusted, I think we can be sure that this threat is more than just bluster.
- Iran continues to support the insurgency in Iraq and appears to be aiding al Qaeda in Afghanistan, as well, by supplying weapons and personnel. They are killing our troops with IED's and have been for years. And we have done nothing to discourage them.
- Iran is clearly using its proxy, Syria, to develop an NBC capability. They clearly are involved, in some capacity in the September 6 raid that Israel launched against a Syrian base, and they were also involved in an accident that killed dozens when a chemical weapon warhead detonated while being placed on a SCUD missile. The facts about those two incidents are hard to come by right now.
They very clearly remain a threat.
While I agree that a military option is off the table, barring some new and current Intel, this certainly is not the time to let up on the pressure. The NIE indicates that the ongoing pressure and sanctions have clearly had the desired effect, so let's keep it up until Iran proves, beyond any doubt, that they are not pursuing nuclear weapons and they are not a threat to us or our allies.
In the meantime, we can talk to them all day. But let's not lose sight of the fact that Iran is still a threat, nukes or not.
More analysis at:
Related posts:
- Is the Syrian-Iranian Nuke Program a Growing Threat?
- Iranian-Syrian Chemical Weapons Experiment Kills Dozens
- Is the UN Hiding Syria's Pursuit of Nukes?
- Israeli Raid on Syria: 'So Close to World War Three'
- Were WMD Moved to Syria Before the Iraq War?
Updated: Hot Air has video of Amb. John Bolton on O'Reilly last night. Was the new NIE politically motivated?
Bolton drops a hint at the politics built into the NIE when he notes that he knows who was behind the change in tone from 2005’s NIE, which alleged an ongoing Iranian nuclear weapons program, with this year’s, which alleges that the Iranians shut their nuclear weapons program down in 2003.
Curt also has some interesting stuff at Flopping Aces.
Also, you know we're &%$#@& when Ahmadinejad claims victory.
"This is a declaration of victory for the Iranian nation against the world powers over the nuclear issue," Ahmadinejad told thousands of people during a visit to Ilam province in western Iran.
If they really did stop their nuke program in 2003, they will definitely restart it after this. Hell, there's no incentive for them not to. It's time to push harder than ever.
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