I found this report at The Fourth Rail quite troubling, especially given Bill Roggio's accurate and exceptional reporting.
As the security situation in the Northwest Frontier Province continues to deteriorate and President Pervez Musharraf's political stock continues to drop, the US military intelligence community is "urgently assessing how secure Pakistan's nuclear weapons would be in the event President Gen. Pervez Musharraf were replaced." Meanwhile, the Taliban and al Qaeda have dispersed operatives from the training camps in the Northwest Frontier Province and are preparing to fight on their own terms.
With the Pakistani government facing a robust Taliban insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Province, a significant al Qaeda presence inside the country and a violent cadre of home grown Islamist extremists, the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has taken on an elevated importance. The US intelligence community believes it has a handle on the location of Pakistan’s nuclear warhead, but there are questions over who controls the launch codes in the event of Musharraf’s passing.
The US is also looking past the issue of the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. The loyalty of the conventional Pakistani military to President Musharraf is in question, according to CNN. Musharraf controls the loyalty of the commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclear program, but those loyalties could shift at any point," CNN reported on August 10. "There is also a growing understanding according to the U.S. analysis that Musharraf's control over the military remains limited to certain top commanders and units, raising worries about whether he can maintain control over the long term."
This has long been an issue and there are certainly contingency plans in place if it should happen. But it's not like all of their nukes are stored in one place and we can just send a Ranger Battalion in there to secure them if Musharraf falls. And I certainly don't think that the people of Pakistan are going to look kindly upon any U.S. incursions, especially in the wake of a coup.
Whatever happened, and whomever emerged as the new "president," it would not be good for the West.
Just as troubling is the bit of news that many, if not all, of Pakistan's terrorist training camps have been abandoned.
On the same day of the release of news on concerns over the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and the loyalty of the Pakistani military, the Asia Times' Syed Saleem Shahzad reported al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North and South Waziristan have emptied, the Taliban and al Qaeda are expanding into the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province, and are reorganizing in both Afghanistan and Pakistan for a major fight.
The Fourth Rail interviewed a senior military intelligence official and a military officer, both of whom are familiar with the situation in the Northwest Frontier Province and wish to remain anonymous. The sources confirmed Mr. Shahzad's information concerning the al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North Waziristan and the Taliban’s reorganization is accurate. Both sources are particularly concerned about the implications of the emptying of the camps.
The camps emptying is not a good sign.
It seems to me that there are two possible reasons: either there will be an all-out al Qaeda/Taliban combined effort against the Pakistani Government or U.S./coalition forces in Afghanistan (remember the recent frontal assault on Firebase Anaconda that seemed like a probe?) OR the camps have been vacated as a precaution against retaliatory strikes that might follow a major terrorist event against Western targets somewhere, probably in the U.S. or U.K.
You might also remember all of the warnings (and Chertoff's "gut feeling") that there might be a terrorist attack this summer. And then there's this warning of a possible radiological attack in NYC this weekend.
It's definitely a time to be on our toes.
Related posts:
Also posting:
Mr. Roggio's information on Taliban/AQ activities in Pakistan's NWFP has been confirmed on several occasions.
Pakistan's pseudo N-arsenal was locked down by the US in 2001. The rumors may refer to US contingency plans to actually seize the arsenal.
I am sorry I cannot be more specific, but I am long out of touch with direct intelligence on Pakistan and my current people strictly cover conventional matters. For several reasons Pakistan's N-weapons are not of great interest to India.
Posted by: Ravi | August 11, 2007 at 07:18 PM